Why social distancing matter?

Some insights from simple mathematical models.

Disclaimer: I am not a medical doctor nor an epidemiologist. I’m just an applied mathematician. The sole aim of this new series is to provide a better understanding of (fairly simplified) epidemiological models to an audience as large as possible as well as illustrating some of the challenges a disease such as COVID-19 poses from a mathematical modeling point of view. Nothing more.

Europe is actively facing the dreaded second wave. France just entered its second lock-down on October 30th, shortly followed by Germany and the UK. Throughout Europe, the appropriateness of the decisions taken by policymakers is under scrutiny. An increasing number of individuals question the necessity and the effectiveness of social distancing and lock-down to fight this pandemic. Some go as far as negating scientific evidence. Politicians and governments, who are the ones eventually taking the blame, try to minimize their responsibilities by arguing that no one saw this second wave coming. At the same time, a vast majority of doctors and scientists spend considerable effort in educating and informing the public while fighting fake news and misinformation. This new post is only a small stone added to that building.